That was the question asked by our Investment SIG's November presenter, Dennis Kranyak: Do you know what the stock market will do in the future?
Dennis is president of the Society of Market Technicians and holds workshops on various investment topics.
Check out Dennis' excellent website, www.unrulydog.com and his newsletter Income GPS.
To be a bit more precise, what Dennis said to introduce his talk was: "I know what the stock market will do in the future." Many in the audience caught on and nodded in agreement that they also knew: The stock market will fluctuate."
In that agreement was the seed for Dennis' explanation of a methodology which you can read about in full by going to his above listed website. But for now, here's an unofficial summary of the most basic aspect of that methodology.
For those who agree the stock market will rise and fall, the basic method of investing discussed was to buy when the stock, index or etf was low and sell it when high. Dennis documented the value of this approach with examples and, of course, the method (AIM - visit his website) is more sophistocated than is here stated.
And, for further thought, here's another question for blog readers. Clearly, this methodology works best in a market which is fluctuating. When the market is going down, however, especially in a sustained bear market, what would an investor do in this situation?
For a fuller explanation of how this AIM method works, visit Dennis' website. Also, if you visit the Archive section of this Investment SIG page, you will see the evening's agenda and get a little better sense of the authors on which Dennis drew and how our meeting progressed. And, if you visit our coming events page, you may find a topic in which you are interested. If not, let us know what you are interested in and perhaps we can set up a future meeting to address your interest either as an attendee or a presenter.